The iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus went on sale on Sept. 19th, releasing in 10 countries and selling over 10 mil. units in its first weekend of availability. Last Friday, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved the new iPhones, and Chinese consumers may have preordered up to 20 mil. iPhone 6s in 3 days. Source: Wall Street Journal. CNET 10/13/14.

Satellite-Cable-Telco Subscribers
Company/Industry 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 yr. 3 yr.
(millions of subs)         Sub. Change
Comcast 23.559 22.790 22.331 21.995 -336 k -1,564 k
DirecTV 18.125 18.837 19.532 19.764 232 k 1,639 k
Dish 14.100 14.133 13.967 14.056 89 k -44 k
Time Warner Cable 12.859 12.422 12.061 12.218 157 k -641 k
Cox 6.200 6.150 6.090 6.000 -90 k -200 k
AT&T 2.500 3.373 4.144 4.856 712 k 2,356 k
Verizon 2.750 3.472 4.173 4.726 553 k 1,976 k
Charter Cable 4.824 4.520 4.314 4.158 -156 k -666 k
Cablevision 3.063 3.314 3.250 3.197 -53 k 134 k
Totals 87.980 89.011 89.862 90.970 1,108 k 2,990 k
Cable TV (5 MSOs) 50.505 49.196 48.046 47.568 -478 k -2,937 k
Satellite 32.225 32.970 33.499 33.820 321 k 1,595 k
Telco 5.250 6.845 8.317 9.582 1,265 k 4,332 k

Is Cord-Cutting A Myth? Do The Math!

By Paul Kagan - April 23, 2013

The popular image of "cord-cutting" - movement of interest from cable TV to online viewing--has been misread from the beginning. Reports of cable TV subscriber losses miss the fact that satellite and telephone companies built their own "cords." So, despite the advent of Netflix, Hulu, YouTube and other online providers, over the last three years (2010-2012) cable, satellite & phone operators - each of them "cords" with monthly contract fees - added a total of 3 mil. net new subscribers (see table above).

Concerns that a shift from TV to the internet have put incumbent carriers on a downward - perhaps fatal - path are way over the top (pun intended). Print critics in newspapers, magazines and online (veteran cynics of wired TV) have conjured a mass movement to online video, an opinion that helps them promote their own ventures.

As the table above shows, the nine largest "cords" (cable, satellite and telephone providers) - had 91 mil. subscribers at year-end 2012, up 3 mil. from 2009, when cord-jumping fever settled in. The biggest gainers on the list were AT&T (+2.36 mil.), Verizon (+1.98 mil.) and DirecTV (+1.64 mil.). And in 2012 alone, the big telcos added 1.265 mil. subs, Satellite gained only 321K and cable gave up 478K. (Note: for this analysis, I used data from only the five largest cable MSOs. But research indicates similar percentage performance deeper into the list.

The data above are not my estimates; they were reported by the companies. It's clear that, despite populist fears of cord-cutting, the nine largest video distributors signed a net new 3 mil. subscribers over the last three years while pundits accused them of losing audience to internet video newcomers. The new online networks surely are building their own followings, but they have a long way to go to be full competitors.

One of the biggest obstacles for the newbies is their own chronology. People aged 20-35 today - the primary cord-cutters--will lead different lives as they mature, when work and family responsibilities will have greatly changed. The economics of time and taste will find big screens on walls everywhere, and family viewing may well have a renaissance. Indeed, Google Fiber - for one - is counting on it. The search giant is planning to overbuild the nation with a gigabyte network designed to compete head-on with its cable/telco predecessors, while bowing to the needs of this generation's heavy downloaders.

Google clearly got the idea from the original cable guys, whose revenue comes primarily from video content but whose profit depends largely on similar access to the internet. Let the upgrading begin.




© 2013 PK Worldmedia, Inc.   All rights reserved.

Stocks Rally on Earnings; Microsoft Q1 Earnings           Beat Expectations

 

By Catherine Hertzberg 
- October 24, 2014
 

  Quarterly results from Microsoft gave stocks a bump up, aided by easing fears of the possible spread of Ebola in the US. The Dow gained 128 pts., closing at 16,805. The S&P 500 rose 14 pts. to 1,965.

   Lions Gate Entertainment rose 5% in 4x avg. trading. It was reported that Alibaba's Jack Ma is interested in LGF Chairman Mark Rachesky's 37.4 % stake, currently worth $1.6 bil.

   Microsoft rose 2% on twice avg. volume after announcing its Q1 results. Revenue of $23.2 bil. was up 25% from $18.53 a year ago. EPS fell from 62 cents to 54 cents due to a restructuring charge of $1.14 bil. Both revenue and EPS beat analysts' expectations.

   Consumer Electronics, up 17% YTD, are down 3% from their all time high of 84.43, set September 11.

   Amazon slumped 8% on 5x avg. trading. It reported a Q3 loss of $544 mil. vs. a $25 mil. loss a year ago. It forecasts a Q4 loss of $430 mil. to $570 mil.

 

 Indices  10/23  10/24  %YTD 
 Video Gaming 11.84 11.87 29.3 
 Towers 338.93 340.94 20.3 
 DJ Utilities 577.03 583.70 19.0 
 Consumer Elec. 81.33 81.79 17.0 
 Fiber Optics 2.42 2.42 14.2 
 Satellite TV 71.81 72.26 13.7 
 NASDAQ 100 4,012.27 4,042.02 12.5 
 Internet Content 52.75 52.30 10.7 
 Telco 41.08 41.24 9.7 
 NASDAQ 4,452.79 4,483.72 7.4 
 Publishing 80.78 80.83 6.5 
 S&P 500 1,950.82 1,964.58 6.3 
 Cable MSO 67.61 68.17 4.9 
 Movie Theaters 13.61 13.75 4.0 
 Digital Life 503.29 497.70 3.5 
 3D 33.44 33.56 2.5 
 Global Cable 119.51 122.12 2.0 
 Dow Jones Avg. 16,677.90 16,805.41 1.4 
 Home Video 211.23 211.42 1.1 
 Wireless Tech. 12.64 12.72 (0.7) 
 Broadband Tech. 20.02 20.01 (1.4) 
 Motion Pictures 35.90 36.09 (2.8) 
 Russell 2000 1,116.49 1,118.82 (3.9) 
 Internet Media 118.29 117.49 (4.6) 
 Social Media 109.80 109.87 (4.6) 
 Advertising 90.50 90.91 (10.3) 
 Television 98.88 98.61 (13.2) 
 Wireless Prov. 26.26 26.54 (13.2) 
 Global Wireless 77.30 78.24 (13.6) 
 Interactive TV 19.84 19.63 (20.4) 
 Radio 14.95 14.93 (20.8) 
 Satellite Networks 48.49 48.75 (22.4) 
 © 2012 PK Worldmedia, Inc. All rights reserved.